I hope that who ever that has the ultimate power in the lao side won't rush themselves into this kind of deal.
It's a dumb deal, first off - the chinese is treating lao like a retarded party. Only retarded people will get themselves into this kind of contract. Well, maybe not quite, because a small, selected pocket of highly influential people among the lao hierarchy will profit from this deal immensely. The rest of the lao people will, as usual, get fukkkked to the kingdom come.
Let's look at who will profit from this :
* The chinese. The loan, the interests, the collateral, the operation, the maintanance, the usage of the train etc...Apart from the huge loan and interests that need to be paid, how many chinese engineering ( all level of engineers and technicians) crews are needed to run the whole operation. Because they are high skilled, they will demand exorbitant pays. How about the maintenance side - how often the system will go down, each time the system goes down what would it cost to bring the system back up, as far as labor and replacement parts ? Can you get cheaper parts any where else ? no - niet. So, Laos will get screwed. How about other costs, hidden costs, can any body guess ? What if they demand a raise, a better medical insurance or a retirement funding ? Have any answer for these ?
The chinese will use this so called " high speed train " to suck lao blood dry to death. If Laos can't meet her
contractual obligations, the chinese will take many of the lao richesses and natural resources, including some gold mines. China might as well take possession of the bordering northern province of Laos if Laos can't pay back.
* The lao : As a transportion mean, how much revenues can the country generate from the local lao passengers ? who else will use this train ? the tourists that want to ride the train from Laos into China and vice versa ? how many, any concrete numbers that you can play with ? what if they don't come ? Beside, the train will directly compete with the lao aviation for the passengers. That could be costly for the lao aviation.
But, the selected group of lao people who will directly profit from this project will be those powerful group of high ranking lao officials who will have something to do with the signing of this deal. We all know how the chinese business model works - gifts, bonuses and/or commissions... if roughly 10% of the whole package, this can be translated into this number : 10% of US$7 Billions = US$ 700.00 millions into those people pockets. That looks sweet.
I think every Lao people inside or outside of Laos wants Laos to develop and prosper. But in this deal Laos is totally in the mercy of the Chinese alone. Does Laos have engineers and skilled workers for this? The answer is NO. It's extremely risky. Every smart people in the world knows that the Chinese are very clever human beings. LAOS DOESN"T NEED THIS HIGH SPEED TRAIN RIGHT NOW. If the Lao government is mart enough they can first wait a few more years when this high speed train is fully operational between China and Singapore through Thailand. Laos will see what kind of problems exist and what are potential solutions, and whether it's profitable to do the same thing in Laos. Laos will have time to think clearly and form its own necessary engineers and skilled workers. Laos can depend on itself and other countries, not only on China.
